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比特幣的起落好似本世紀初納斯達克崩盤

毫無疑問,世界經濟對于“繁榮”和“蕭條”兩者的“你方唱罷我登場”早已是司空見慣。不過,資產一會兒坐火箭、一會兒玩跳水、一夜暴富一夜窮光蛋的景象可沒多少人見過吧——然而,在加密貨幣世界里,“玩的就是心跳”已經見怪不怪。

事實上,加密貨幣市場那閃電般的速度催生了摩根士丹利的一份報告新鮮出爐——摩根士丹利將比特幣最近的起起落落比作納斯達克指數2000年前后的暴漲暴跌——只是,前者的速度相當于后者的15倍。

根據報告回憶,截至2000年3月,納斯達克在519天之內上漲了278%;相比之下,比特幣在短短35天里就上漲了248%,在19,500美元附近觸及峰值,之后就開始了漫長的下挫之旅。

 比特幣的起落好似本世紀初納斯達克崩盤

                           (納斯達克綜合指數2000年的大崩盤,圖片來源:the forecaster-interactive)

熊市下跌和反彈的相似性

據彭博社報道,比特幣的大跳水其實并非嚴格的直線下挫,而是類似于納斯達克當年的下跌形勢。自去年12月以來,比特幣的價格有過三次幾近腰斬的暴跌,隨后就是反彈。而類似地,納斯達克在熊市時期也有五次跌幅將近44%。

二者在熊市行情下的反彈也有類似之處——比特幣在熊市有兩次暴漲了43%左右;納斯達克的熊市大反彈則平均上漲了大約40%。

該報告補充說,比特幣價值的下跌伴隨著交易量的激增。然而,摩根士丹利分析師Sheena Shah寫道,交易量激增并不意味著投資者活動增多,其實是他們急于脫身。

 比特幣的起落好似本世紀初納斯達克崩盤

              (比特幣價格走勢與納指崩盤走勢對比圖,圖片來源:Elementus)

比特幣下一步將何去何從?

過去幾天里,加密幣市場使數十億美元蒸發一空,現在的可能走上了復蘇道路。3月18日周日當天,加密幣總市值在2,750億美元左右觸底,自那之后反彈至了3,300億美元,但距離一周前的3,800億美元仍然有一段路要走。

過去,比特幣的熊市(其實非常頻繁)曾持續大約五個月。根報道,這些熊市時期比特幣估值的跌幅在28%至92%不等。因此摩根士丹利說,最近一次70%的跌幅其實不值得大驚小怪。

不過分析師Sheena Shah仍補充道,加密貨幣的案例在經濟史上極難找到類似,再加上每次熊市都各不相同,因此很難預測當前的熊市會不會重演前面的先例。

The world economy has seen its share of booms and busts, sure. However, ricocheting asset valuations, market dives, and overnight fortunes have never been so commonplace as they are in the world of cryptocurrency.

Learn how to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum safely with our simple guide!

In fact, the greased-lightning pace at which cryptocurrency markets operate has caused a recent report by Morgan Stanley to compare the recent moves of the Bitcoin network to the ca. 2000 boom and bust of the Nasdaq, only at 15 times the speed.

The report specifically recalls the Nasdaq’s 278-percent climb that took place over 519 days, ending in March of 2000; Bitcoin rose 248-percent in 35 days, peaking at roughly $19,500 before beginning a long journey down the mountain.

There are a few different theories as to what is causing the decline.

Similarities in Bear Market Drops and Rallies

Bloomberg reports that the decline of Bitcoin has not been exactly linear, similar to the fall of the Nasdaq. Since December, the price of Bitcoin has taken three sharp falls to the tune of around 50-percent before recovering. The Nasdaq also fell roughly 44-percent five times in its bear market.

There are also similarities in bear market rallies–the Bitcoin bear market has twice spiked up around 43-percent; the Nasdaq’s bear market rallies averaged out around 40 percent.

The report added that Bitcoin’s decline in value has been accompanied by a jump in trading volume. However, Morgan Stanley analyst Sheena Shah wrote that “rising trade volumes are thus not an indication of more investor activity but instead a rush to get out.”

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

The crypto markets may be on the pathway to recovery after shedding billions of dollars over the past several days. After bottoming out at around $275 billion on Sunday, March 18, the total market capitalization has climbed up to roughly $330 billion, but still has a ways to go until $380 billion, where it was a week prior.

In the past, Bitcoin’s bear markets (which have been plentiful) have lasted roughly five months. According to a Bloomberg report, valuations during these periods have dropped anywhere from 28 to 92 percent. According to Morgan Stanley, the most recent decline of 70 percent is “nothing out of the ordinary.”

However, Sheena Shah added that “the small number of historical examples and variability of each of the bear markets make it difficult to assume that the current bear market may take the same time period.”

At the time of writing, a single Bitcoin was worth roughly $8,750, recovering from a weekly low of around $7,400.

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